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AI Economy Metrics
Hyperscaler capex, AI venture capital flows, market sizing, sovereign AI funds, productivity projections, and the adoption gap: the numeric spine of the AI-economy analysis. Every value cites its source.
Vintage: 2026-07. Compiled July 2026. Generative-AI market estimates for 2026 range from $121B to $395B depending on methodology. The spread is itself a finding, not a resolvable disagreement.
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| Entity | Metric | Value | Period | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
World Aggregate spending | AI spending (Gartner forecast) +47% YoY; potentially $3.3T in 2027. | ~$2.59 trillion | 2026 | Official | [1] |
United States Aggregate spending | AI capex share of US GDP | ~1-2.2% | 2025-2026 | Press-reported | [2] |
United States Aggregate spending | AI capex vs. consumer spending contribution to H1 2025 GDP growth Rare: consumption is ~68% of GDP and rarely dethroned as growth driver. | AI capex contributed more than consumer spending | H1 2025 | Press-reported | [2] |
World Aggregate spending | Infrastructure (chips / servers / networking / cloud) share of AI spend | 45%+ | 2026 | Official | [1] |
Amazon + Microsoft + Alphabet + Meta + Oracle Hyperscaler capex | 2026 combined capex (planned) Up ~35%+ from 2025's ~$450-500B; exceeds Switzerland's GDP. | ~$600-725 billion | 2026 | Press-reported | [3] [4] [5] |
Amazon Hyperscaler capex | 2026 capex guidance | ~$200 billion | 2026 | Press-reported | [3] |
Microsoft Hyperscaler capex | 2026 capex guidance (CY) | ~$190 billion | CY2026 | Press-reported | [3] |
Alphabet Hyperscaler capex | 2026 capex guidance | $175-190 billion | 2026 | Press-reported | [3] |
Meta Hyperscaler capex | 2026 capex guidance | $115-145 billion | 2026 | Press-reported | [3] |
Global Hyperscaler capex | Data-center buildout needs (projection) McKinsey-class estimate. | ~$6.7 trillion by 2030 (~70% AI-driven) | By 2030 | Proxy / estimate | [1] |
United States Venture capital | AI share of US VC | ~61% (~$259B of $427B) | 2025 | Press-reported | [2] |
World Venture capital | AI share of global VC (Q1 2026) | 80% (~$242B in the quarter) | Q1 2026 | Press-reported | [1] |
OpenAI Venture capital | Largest venture round ever | $40 billion | 2025 | Press-reported | [1] [2] |
World Venture capital | Aggregate AI revenues vs. capex The bubble/buildout question in one number. | ~$50B revenues vs. capex 10×+ that | 2026 | Proxy / estimate | [1] [2] |
Generative AI Market sizing | 2026 market estimate (methodology spread) Spread itself is the finding, no methodology consensus on what counts. | $121B - $395B | 2026 | Proxy / estimate | [1] [6] [7] [8] |
Abu Dhabi (MGX) Sovereign AI | AI fund closed | $49 billion | July 2026 | Press-reported | [9] |
United Kingdom Sovereign AI | Sovereign AI Fund | £500 million | April 2026 | Official | [10] |
UAE + Japan Sovereign AI | Share of disclosed sovereign AI investment | > 2/3 | 2025-2026 | Press-reported | [9] |
World Sovereign AI | New national AI strategies published in 2024 First low-income countries with formal plans include Ethiopia and Rwanda. | 12 | 2024 | Press-reported | [9] |
Global organisations Adoption & productivity | Use AI in ≥1 function / see enterprise-level EBIT impact The central adoption-gap number of the AI-economy analysis. | 88% / 39% | 2025-2026 | Press-reported | [1] [11] |
United States Adoption & productivity | Projected generative-AI GDP effect (Penn Wharton) | +1.5% by 2035 | By 2035 | Official | [11] |
United States Adoption & productivity | Projected generative-AI GDP effect (Penn Wharton) | ~+3% by 2055 | By 2055 | Official | [11] |
Global Adoption & productivity | Long-run GDP effect (Goldman-style range) Range reflects diffusion-speed assumption disagreement, not measurement error. | +1.5% to +15% | Long run | Proxy / estimate | [2] |
World Adoption & productivity | Roles created / displaced by 2030 (WEF) Netting hides distributional pain, per framework, never report only the net. | +170M / -92M (net +78M) | By 2030 | Press-reported | [12] |
Abridge Sector / company signals | US health systems deployed Strongest at-scale vertical AI deployment signal outside pure software dev. | 150+ | 2026 | Press-reported | [13] |
Abridge Sector / company signals | Valuation | $5.3 billion | 2026 | Press-reported | [13] |
Harvey (legal AI) Sector / company signals | Valuation | $11 billion | 2026 | Press-reported | [13] |
Legora (legal AI) Sector / company signals | Valuation | $5.55 billion | 2026 | Press-reported | [13] |
Cursor Sector / company signals | ARR growth Among the fastest software growth ever measured. | $0 → $2 billion in under 3 years | 2023-2026 | Press-reported | [13] |
Lovable Sector / company signals | ARR growth | ~$400M in 14 months | 2025-2026 | Press-reported | [13] |
US Healthcare Sector / company signals | Projected annual savings from AI by 2030 Methodology-dependent; McKinsey-class estimate. | ~$150 billion / year | By 2030 | Proxy / estimate | [11] |
Global Banking Sector / company signals | Projected sector AI savings | $447 billion+ by 2030 | By 2030 | Proxy / estimate | [1] |
Global Manufacturing Sector / company signals | AI contribution to global GDP by 2035 | $3.8 trillion (projection) | By 2035 | Proxy / estimate | [14] |
Sources
- Worldwide AI spending to grow 47% in 2026 (Gartner)
- Why AI companies may invest more than $500B in 2026 (Goldman Sachs)
- AI Capex 2026: The $690B Infrastructure Sprint (Futurum Group)
- Hyperscaler capex >$600B in 2026, +36% YoY (IEEE ComSoc TechBlog)
- Financing the AI Supercycle (MUFG)
- Generative AI worldwide (Statista)
- Generative AI market report (Grand View Research)
- Generative AI market (Coherent Market Insights)
- Sovereign AI Index (CNAS)
- UK Sovereign AI Fund (Wikipedia)
- Projected impact of generative AI on future productivity growth (Penn Wharton Budget Model)
- AI and the global economy (WEF)
- AI Landscape, 7 stack layers (ValueAdd VC)
- AI in manufacturing to 2035 (Precedence Research)